Categories
2016 Racing Season

F1 2016 Reflections

Witnessing 21 GP’s in a 37 week span has left me in a bit of a daze.  Toss in 16 Indy car races and 18 MotoGP’s in the same time-frame, on top of the millions of bits of information being spewed out of my iPhone on a daily basis and it’s a recipe for a classic case of information overload.  In an attempt to reminisce and pick out important moments that tell the story of F1 2016, I’m just seeing a streaming highlight reel of the lights going out and cars leaving starting grids, first corner melees, pitstops, DRS assisted passes, sparking skid plates, Max Verstappen, opposite lock, grid girls, Max Verstappen, Bernie’s face, Vettel temper tantrums, my wife giving me a dirty look, Max Verstappen, buzzards racing for a podium ceremony, Ricciardo drinking champagne from a boot, Massa waving a tearful goodbye while Verstappen goes by around the outside of somebody in the wet and finally, Rosberg celebrating the title.  Seriously, what just happened there?  

In the same 37 week span that Donald Trump pulled off the political shocker of a lifetime, Nico performed a minor miracle of his own by taking the fight to teammate Lewis Hamilton and winning the 2016 title.  Similar to the Donald/Hillary battle, Hamilton won the popular vote with 10 wins to Nico’s 9, 17 podiums to Nico’s 16, and 12 poles to Nico’s 8, but Nico was the more consistent performer week in and out and had zero mechanical DNF’s while Lewis suffered one lone catastrophic engine failure while leading in Sepang.  Lewis also had 3 qualifying mechanical issues and quickly went through his five engine allotment, causing him to take a mere 55 grid spot penalty at Spa and start dead last, gifting Nico a Sunday afternoon drive in the park.  And then there were the multiple flubbed starts where Lewis looked like he was dragging an anchor as he struggled to find the bite point in his clutch.   

 

Political Conspiracy Theory:  Mercedes did swap crews before the beginning of the year and one has to wonder if this was the determining factor that tilt the balance of power in Nico’s favor.   

Was there an unseen wave of discontent sweeping through the Mercedes garages among the rank and file employees over Lewis’s me-first antics and elitist celebrity lifestyle that we the fans were not aware of in our left leaning coastal enclaves?  We may never know until Lewis writes his tell all memoir, but it made for an intriguing battle for the sport’s most coveted prize.

 

And then the fun really began.  I’ll be honest, other than Max’s drive in Brazil and the Ricciardo/Max tussle in Malaysia for what ultimately led to the win, this was not a season for the ages.  But when a world champion retires unexpectedly in late November, igniting a raging silly season debate, all is good in the F1 world again.  So in the name of fun and games, here is my quick and dirty version of Nico’s Retirement Trickle Down Musical Chairs.

-Lewis needs a rapid partner, Merc wants a German, so Vettel comes on board

-Ferrari need an ace so they go buy out Ricciardo

-Red Bull want a constructors title so they grab Alonso

-McLaren need a #1 so they hire Bottas

-Williams then grab Perez claiming long term stability

-Causing Force India to go get Carlos Sainz Jr

-Toro Roso then grab Pascal Wehrlein

-And place Pierre Gasly with Manor

Damn I was hoping to include Renault, Haas and Sauber in this but it’s just not working out.

So here is my 2017 Grid:

Mercedes: Hamilton, Vettel

Red Bull:  Max, Alonso

Ferrari:  Ricciardo, Kimi

McLaren: Bottas, Vandoorne

Force India:  Sainz Jr, Ocon

Williams:  Perez, Stroll

Toro Roso: Wehrlein, Kvyat

Haas: Grosjean, Magnussen

Renault: Hulkenberg, Palmer

Sauber: Ericsson, Nasr

Manor: Gasly, LeClerc

Totally farcical, but you can’t tell me that you wouldn’t be counting the days to Melbourne if that was the new lineup.  

One thing is for certain, there is new talent coming up through the ranks and the departures of Nico, JB and Massa are going to open doors for these new kids to show their stuff.  In fact, there should be a new rule against a driver overstaying his useful life and keeping the new blood from moving up.  At a certain point around 35, a driver really is just pounding around for dollars and doesn’t possess the same passion and fire that he (or she) had at 25.  It’s human nature in any sporting endeavor.

So, the new rule is as follows:

No driver shall be able to participate in a F1 race over the age of 35 unless they have been granted a past champions extension.  To be granted this extension, a past F1 World Champion can elect to continue racing for an additional season over the age of 35 for each championship that they have won.  For instance, Alonso is 35 but has two titles so he can race to 37.  Jenson Button at 36 just used his 1 year champions extension so he is timed out.  Massa at 35 is also timed out.  And I hate to say it, but Kimi at 37 is also one year past his expiration date.  

Message to Massa and JB:  Thanks for entertaining us for many years and a heartfelt congrats on all of your successes, now off to sports cars you go.  I hope to see you piloting a Ferrari GT or prototype machine a track near me soon.

Now back to the subject of Nico deciding to turn in his gloves after finally reaching the pinnacle at the relatively young age of 31.  There has been plenty of speculation, but in my opinion it sounds like he sold his soul to beat Lewis and just doesn’t have it in him to dig that deep again.  Fair enough, champions seldom repeat in any sport and F1 drivers are no different.  Here then, is a look back at how a few noteworthy past champions defended or headed for the hills following a title run (from 1981-Present):

1981 – 1982: To close out the ‘81 season, Nelson Piquet in a Brabham snatched the title from Carlos Reutemann and Jacques Laffitte at the final round in the parking lot of Caesars Palace.  The next season, Brabham switched from a Cosworth V-8 to a BMW Turbo powerplant and Mr Piquet, not keen on being a test mule, finished a lowly 11th in the championship.

1984 – 1985:  In the ‘84 season Niki Lauda clearly tempted the law of averages to beat Alain Prost by ½ point for the title, because in ‘85, Prost won the title and outscored Lauda 73-14.  Note- Lauda was 36 years old during the ‘85 season.  Note II:  Former 1980 world champion, Alan Jones, came out of retirement with a solid Fosters beer belly to drive around in the original Haas F1 team.  

1987 – 1988:  Nelson Piquet won the ‘87 title after two seasons of insane psychological warfare with teammate Nigel Mansell and decided to bolt for Team Camel Lotus and teammate Satoru Nakajima.  In ‘88 Piquet drove for dollars to 6th in the championship, just ahead of Ivan Capelli and Derek Warwick.

1992 – 1993:  Ah the glory days of bizarre behavior and driver feuds!  Nigel Mansell blitzed the field in ‘92 in the potent Williams FW14B and then decided to leave F1 altogether for CART!!  Alain Prost, who was fired by Ferrari near the end of the ‘91 season and sat out ‘92, was drafted in to continue the Williams dominance with Damon Hill as his teammate and won the title in his sleep.  And to top it off, Prost then retired for good with his 4th title to make way for Ayrton at Williams in ‘94.  ‘93 Fun flashback –  Ayrton  was partnered by Michael Andretti for 13 rounds with an under-powered Cosworth V-8 and a young lad named Schumacher won his first GP in Estoril.

1995 – 1996 – 1997:  After winning the ‘94 and ‘95 titles for Benetton, Schumacher left the team to restore glory to a Ferrari team in disarray.  This opened the door for Damon Hill to beat his rookie teammate Jacques Villeneuve to the ‘96 title while Schumi finished 3rd, some 40 plus points behind Hill.  Damon Hill then couldn’t put together a deal with Williams to defend his title so he spent the ‘97 season plunking around in a Arrows-Yamaha and finished a lowly 12th in points!

Mika Hakkinen:  After striking a deal with Ukko, the Mythical Finnish God of the sky, weather and crops, to win the ‘98 and ‘99 titles over Schumacher and finishing a fighting 2nd to Schumi in 2000, Mika lost the fire in 2001 and hung up his helmet at the end of the season.  Age – 33.  Perhaps Mika accelerated his motivational curve by 2-3 years due to too many years of being sponsored by Marlboro and West?

Michael Schumacher:  After rewriting the record book at Ferrari, Michael was defeated by a young Alonso in 2005 and 2006 and decided to go play with motorcycles.  Note: In 2005, Michael Schumacher was 36 years old!  And of course then the crazy SOB came back at 41 to take on Rosberg at Mercedes for 3 years.  (But then again Michael did qualify for 7 extra years of racing due to his 7 titles!)

Alright enough with the history lesson.  We know that Kimi won a title at Ferrari and the following year was no match for Massa.  The lesson here is Nico is not unique to running out of motivation.  It’s happens, and good on him to get out while he’s on top.  It must burn Hamilton to know that he isn’t going to get the opportunity for revenge.  

The question of the day is:  Will Nico be able to stay away for good as he has indicated?  Changing diapers and hanging out with the wife is great and all, but to go from F1 hero to domestic dad in a week will be a shocker.  Especially when Ferrari may be looking for a Kimi replacement at the end of next season.  Like many before him, he may have to ease into this retirement business with the DTM or a LeMans program.  Then again who knows, I saw him trying to lead the Tifosi through ‘Seven Nation Army’ on the podium this year so maybe he has the German pop charts next in his sights?

 

Well Happy Holidays and here’s to hoping that 2017 will bring about another golden era of the sport.  The driving talent is there and the new cars look pretty awesome on paper, so let the design race begin and bring on Melbourne.

And a shout out to Simon Pagenaud, Marc Marquez, and Jimmy Johnson for taking care of business.

Categories
2016 Racing Season

F1 2016

When the checkered flag flew at Abu Dhabi just a few short months ago, for the first time in my life I was happy to see a season come to an end. Mercedes were celebrating their 32nd win over the past 38 grands prix and F1 had never been more processional or predictable.  Only Ricciardo with 3 wins in 2014 and Vettel with 3 in 2015 have provided any sort of resistance to the Silver Arrows 1.6 litre, V-6 turbocharged hybrid parade.  It’s an extremely complicated formula, one that an automotive engineer must find fascinating, but for the common fan who wants to see a fight on the track, the past two seasons have been a letdown.  Seriously, enough with this formula!  Quiet F1 cars that are aerodynamically unable to follow each other, where the goal of the driver is to save fuel, tires and energy should be crushed into a large cube and recycled immediately.  Shame on you FIA.  This is a senna_1985_estorilsport that is supposed to evoke passion and stir the soul.  Senna, Schumacher, Mansell, Ferrari, Villeneuve, Monza, V-12’s screaming, impossibly late breaking, mind numbing acceleration, adrenaline, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.  Somehow, sadly, F1 seems to have moved away from it’s core.  I get it, the world moves on, interests change and a business has to keep up with the times or face extinction, but I feel like a quiet F1 car being raced at 8/10’s has been stripped of it’s identity and may as well be an LMP1 sportscar.  Have you ever punched the air and let out a battle cry at the sight of an Audi quietly whooshing past?  Neither have I.  

 

But it’s Spring again and optimism abounds.  Here is my worst case/best case scenarios for F1 2016.

Thumbs Down_Skin ColorWorst Case

Let’s start with the negative:  The worst case scenario is simple, it’s 2015 all over again.  Mercedes domination, Nico unable to mount a challenge to Lewis, Vettel playing the lone role of occasional spoiler, Kimi in the woods (or in the bar), Williams and Red Bull unable to challenge Ferrari, Renault down on power, McLaren Honda bringing up the rear.  Repeat- Fernando Alonso in a McLaren Honda bringing up the rear!  That almost feels difficult to type and makes me nostalgic for the short lived ‘94 McLaren Peugeot partnership.  There’s also the little issue with money, or lack thereof, and the threat of Sauber and Force India going the way of Simtek and Forti Corse is a very real possibility.  And with wholesale changes coming again in 2017, we may see a freeze on development after Barcelona in May and be stuck for the remainder of the year with a spaced out field.

 

Thumbs-up-clip-artBest Case

Let’s be real here, Mercedes are going to win the Constructors and Drivers championships again but maybe, just maybe, Nico will ride his three straight win momentum into the new year and he will take the fight to Lewis all the way to the finale.  And maybe Ferrari really has an engine equal to Mercedes and a chassis so kind to it’s tires that Vettel becomes a legit rival and ups his win tally to 5 and occasionally splits the podium on merit.  And if Ferrari have dialed out their 2015 understeer woes and give Kimi a car where he can say, “Don’t talk to me I know what I’m doing,” the Finn may just be able to keep Vettel within in sights and pounce when there are issues.  That is my hope for the front.

 

Where I really think we may see an improved show is in the four team battle for 3rd in the constructors championship.  This is now year three with essentially the same rules and regulations, so Williams, Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Force India have been fine tuning their package and improving upon their weaknesses now for some time and my hope is that they start the new year on equal footing.  Think about it, with the exception of Old Man Massa, Bottas, Ricciardo, Kyvat, Max, Sainz Jr, Perez and Hulkenberg will be fighting for 5th in the championship and more importantly, Kimi’s seat at Ferrari.  The 21 race audition to partner Sebastian at Ferrari in 2017 will be fierce and should provide some great racing throughout the season.

 

In the fight for P13, I have faith that Renault and Magnussen in particular will be up to the task and McLaren, Sauber and occasionally American newcomers Haas with their 2016 Ferrari powerplant will be mixing it up and fighting for the occasional point or two.  If McLaren-Honda find a way to improve and graduate into the pack above, then we are in really solid shape.

 

And Manor… Yes even Manor is cutting the gap to the front and it will be interesting to see if Mercedes protege and reigning DTM champion, Pascal Wehrlein, looks like the next big thing.

 

What is New:

 

Pirelli will now have 5 compounds of rubber, Ultra Soft, Super Soft, Soft, Medium and Hard, that they will be bringing into the mix.  Drivers will have to select the 3 compounds that they want to use for a race weekend weeks in advance so there is the possibility for varying strategies, at least in the beginning before everything is worked out to a science.  There may also be more pit stops in the cards.  What will undoubtedly be a crucial decision made by brilliant engineers sounds to me like ……..wait for it……..toilet paper shopping at the local mart.  Hmm let’s see, ultra soft, super soft or soft?

 

Pit to driver radio communication has been restricted in an attempt to put more control into the hands of the driver.  I love this one. Citing article 20.1 of the sporting regulations, the FIA has drawn up a 32-point list of permitted transmissions from pit to car.  The thought of Toto Wolff and Christian Horner looking over their allowed 32 point list during a race is comical.  And how is the FIA going to police this?  “Ah Christian, yeah, we have you on tape adding the words Eagle Nine to sentence number 18 on your last call so we are going to have to bring Daniel in for a 10 second stop and go.”  Only in F1.  And I can guarantee you that an allowed transmission will become codeword for “Multi 21 Seb.”

 

Knock out qualifying now has more knocking out.  The basic format of three sessions over the course of an hour remains, but now in the second half of each segment, a car will be knocked out at 90-second intervals.  This sounds fast and furious but I’m hoping the TV producers will be able to find the cars on the knockout line letting it all hang out to advance.  And let’s hope the guy most recently knocked out won’t be cruising back to the pits on the racing line as the next guys are going flat out.  Sounds chaotic and I can’t wait to see this at Monaco.

 

Baku, Azerbaijan is on the calendar!  In what looks to be a made for TV race where they are only building seating for a few Formula1_Circuit_Baku.svgthousand cronies of Bernie, F1 will be racing down Baku Blvd on a track designed by who else, Herman Tilke.  I’m sure it will look cool on TV with the Caspian Sea as a nice backdrop and we will get to see scantily clad women in hot tubs just yards from the track on yachts with names like The Jolly Oiler, but come on now, let’s get a GP back in France.  

 

   

There are now 21 races!  This almost seems like over-saturation to me.  My fear is it will start to feel like Nascar where the driver says things like, “Well the 24 car was about a 9th place car today so we’ll just move on to the next one.”  A Grand Prix used to feel like a rare and wonderful thing, where one bad race could make or break a championship, and I fear that the sense of urgency derived from a 16-18 race calendar may vanish.  Plus how am I supposed to explain to my wife that I now have to watch 21 GP’s on Sunday and Qualifying on Saturday?  

 

The yellow cars are back.  After stepping into the shadows as an engine supplier over the past 5 years, Renault are back as a full blown factory effort after purchasing the Lotus team.  This year will likely be low profile season as they gear up for 2017, but the French team has a history of winning and will hopefully be giving Baby Dietrich and his Red Bull team the bird soon enough.  And for the good of the sport, let’s hope they can find the next Alain Prost and Rene Arnoux.  The motorsports world is a better place with flamboyant Frenchmen driving F1 cars.

 

Alain Prost (F), Renault RE 40 B and RenÈ Arnoux (F), Ferrari 126 C3 at Silverstone during the British Grand Prix 1983.

 

The Americans Are Coming!  I’m not sure how many card carrying Americans are actually a part of the new Haas F1 team, but the team is backed by American businessman Gene Haas and based in Kannapolis, North Carolina.  Seldom does a first year team ever have any success in F1, but Haas has gone the practical route by having Dallara design the chassis and integrating it with a 2016 Ferrari powerplant.  On the driver front, the team pulled off a coup by hiring the experienced and fast Romain Grosjean and pairing him with Esteban Gutierrez.  My hope is in addition to scoring a world championship point in year one, they employ a crew of local North Carolina Good ‘Ol Boys to work as tire changers with the flyaway race team.  The F1 pit lane could use a little dose of redneck to spice up the show.

 

Final Thoughts:

 

I feel like the pecking order this year is pretty predictable with Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams leading the way, but the one dark-horse is Toro Rosso.  For some reason I’m getting some buzzard vibes that this team may break out big time.  Their switch to a 2015 spec Ferrari engine came very late in game as far as designing the car for this year, but they racked up the second most miles to Mercedes in testing and I love that driver pairing.  Max got all of the accolades last year and rightly so, but Sainz Jr is ridiculously fast and just needs more reliability.  I won’t be surprised if either of these guys finish in the top 6 at Melbourne on pure pace.

 

One the subject of future stars, I’m expecting the Big 3 in 2022 to be Verstappen, Sainz and Van Doorne.

 

Where are the sponsors?  I’m looking at the sidepods and wings of these cars and I’m scratching my head wondering how any of these teams are still in business?  I know that the annual payout is substantial, ranging from $150 mil to the top teams down to $50 mil for the likes of Sauber, but where is the rest coming from?  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I miss the days of big tobacco racing!  

 

Will this be the final race in Austin?  When new government officials were elected last year they slashed their annual Grand Prix subsidy from $25 mil to $19 mil, thus placing the future of the race in severe jeopardy.  But hey, they are having a T-Swizzle (Taylor Swift for you unhip people) concert this year on the Saturday after qualifying so there will be plenty of people pouring through the gates.

 

Finally, is there a Ladbrokes over/under for how many races it will take before Alonso finally loses his mind?  I’m predicting at Hockenheim in July, Alonso will pull the car off the track, chuck the wheel, slam his helmet against the sidepod, karate kick the engine cover and walk off into the forest never to be heard from again.

 

2016 Predictions:

 

  1. Hamilton – 10 wins
  2. Rosberg – 6 wins
  3. Vettel – 4 wins
  4. Raikkonen
  5. Bottas
  6. Verstappen
  7. Massa
  8. Ricciardo – 1 win
  9. Sainz
  10. Kvyat
  11. Hulkenberg
  12. Perez
  13. Magnussen
  14. Alonso
  15. Nasr
  16. Button
  17. Palmer
  18. Grosjean
  19. Ericsson
  20. Gutierrez
  21. Wehrlein
  22. Haryanto